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French Open tennis preview, pick and prediction: Zverev vs. Mensik

French Open tennis preview, pick and prediction: Zverev vs. Mensik

Six sets — and zero top-10 opponents — stand in between Alexander Zverev and his first Grand Slam title.

In a surprising French Open semifinal lineup that also features Jakub Mensik, Flavio Cobolli, and Matteo Arnaldi, Zverev stands out above the rest in terms of both ranking and — to an even greater extent — experience. The world No. 3 is a three-time major finalist and Friday will mark his 11th slam semifinal appearance.

Zverev’s next order of business before he can think about lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires is to put himself in a second Roland Garros final, having previously lost a five-setter to Carlos Alcaraz in 2024. Standing in his way is Mensik, whom the German just recently defeated 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3 earlier this spring on the red clay of Madrid in their only previous meeting.

That Mensik gets another shot at Zverev in the French Open semis comes as a considerable shock. After all, it looked like the 20-year-old was down and out in round two against Mariano Navone. Mensik was literally down…but he wasn’t out. The Czech survived significant cramping in a wild fifth set to outlast Navone 6-3, 2-6, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(13-11) after four hours and 41 minutes — collapsing to the clay following match point and remaining there for 10 minutes. Mensik’s improbable Roland Garros run also includes a five-setter against Andrey Rublev plus additional victories over Titouan Droguet, Alex de Minaur, and Joao Fonseca.

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This fortnight — especially the first half of it that featured record-breaking temperatures — has been a survival of the fittest. Compared to the rest of his top-10 mates, Zverev has blown away the field in the fitness department. Two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz (wrist) could not even play in Paris. Neither could Lorenzo Musetti (nor Jack Draper, Arthur Fils, and Holger Rune, for that matter). World No. 1 Jannik Sinner hobbled out in the second round. Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Bublik, and a less than 100 percent Taylor Fritz also lost early.

Zverev, the only player in the top 13 of the ATP rankings still alive on the terre battue, hasn’t even come close to losing. The 29-year-old booked his spot in the last four with victories over Benjamin Bonzi, Tomas Machac, Quentin Halys, Jesper de Jong and Rafael Jodar, dropping just one set to Halys in the process. Zverev trailed the super-talented, 19-year-old Jodar 5-2 in the first set on Tuesday but dominated the rest of the match.

There is, of course, still a chance that it could all fall apart for Zverev — but it feels like it would have happened in the quarterfinals if it was going to happen at all.

Pick: Zverev in 3

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