How Maple Leafs’ divorce with Mitch Marner has worked out for both parties (so far)

Aside from the obvious missing the playoffs and threatening to give the Boston Bruins their first-round pick, the final four in the NHL currently consists of the rival Montreal Canadiens, former Leaf Frederik Andersen’s Carolina Hurricanes, former Leaf Nazem Kadri’s Colorado Avalanche, and former Leaf Mitch Marner’s Vegas Golden Knights (everybody should be cheering for Kadri, by the way!)

The perfect cherry on top to this disaster of a season would have been the Bruins getting a top-10 pick and adding another top prospect to their system after already taking Fraser Minten. But, luck bounced the other way on draft lottery night, and out of nowhere, the Leafs are primed to select Marner’s replacement first overall in the upcoming draft and essentially give themselves an assignment extension in doing so.

The Maple Leafs’ breakup with Marner was a necessary one. As much as the hockey world is having a field day with Marner currently leading the NHL in playoff scoring, with seven goals and 18 points in 12 games, it’s worth an evergreen reminder that what we’re seeing from Marner right now never would have happened in Toronto. With the contrast in spotlight between the two markets, the fact that Vegas won a Cup three years ago and doesn’t have the historical pressure of the Maple Leafs, and the fact that he has so far faced two first-time playoff teams in their current forms, it’s no surprise that Marner is thriving in Vegas.

At the same time, it would be naive to pretend that Marner’s departure had absolutely zero impact on their fortunes this season. They may have only been a wildcard team had he stuck around, but they certainly wouldn’t have missed the playoffs to the degree that they did. It’s hard to replace a 90-plus point forward with Selke-level defensive capabilities, playoff success be damned, and it became obvious right away that Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua, and Matias Maccelli weren’t enough to do so.

Had the Leafs not retained their first round pick this year, and even if they did so at fifth overall, this likely isn’t an article that’s being written right now. But adding Gavin McKenna, a premier game-breaking winger who showcased his talents at Penn State and for Canada at the World Juniors, to a team that visibly struggled without a star winger riding shotgun with Auston Matthews, is a game changer. Sure, McKenna might be behind the rest of the core age-wise, but he’s got the talent to find chemistry with players like Matthews quickly, especially if they hire a coach who prioritizes puck possession and creativity.

It also stops the Leafs from having to spread their wealth evenly in free agency and will allow them to focus heavy on revamping the defensive corps with NHL-ready help and perhaps pivot back for a second-line centre without having to accept Max Domi as one of their top-line wingers in exchange for that. With two years remaining before Matthews hits free agency, the luck of drawing the first overall will extend their competitive window rather than having to ask tough questions about accepting defeat on this era and spending the next five years at the bottom of the standings.

Oh, and while this is all happening, Marner gets to put on a show in the playoffs in a much more positive light than the one he was viewed in while he was a Leaf. He even gets to score in a Game 7 and make it look like his former team was entirely to blame for his lack of success in Toronto.

Now that we’ve made all of those points known, you can see that there’s a legitimate argument to be made here that the divorce, as of right now, is benefitting both sides. Is the jury still out on Marner in the playoffs given that both teams he’s faced so far finished with seven fewer points than the Ottawa Senators did last year? Yes. Did the Leafs completely stumble into their part of this, and is it entirely possible that they screw things up with the first overall pick and plummet into mediocrity under John Chayka’s watch? Absolutely. But where we stand right now, on the morning of the Western Conference Final with the Maple Leafs a month away from adding a young franchise piece, the grass is looking green as ever for both parties.

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