This time a year ago, it would not have been outlandish to claim that Tynan Lawrence’s status as the draft’s only top-end center prospect could make him a challenger to go first overall. He was coming off a point per game season as a 16-year-old in the most challenging junior league to score, and he led Muskegon to a USHL title. He got off to an excellent start in the USHL, which led to Corey Pronman ranking him at 1 in his December draft ranking.
While the level of offensive ability was always a question, a 6’1″ center with excellent skating, skill, and compete made his case at the top compelling.
However, a mid-season move to Boston University has cratered his draft stock, after producing just 7 points in 18 games. There are caveats, of course. Tynan Lawrence is actually one of the draft’s youngest players, with an August birthday, and he joined a BU team that frankly wasn’t particularly good. He also finished the season relatively well, with 6 points in the final 8 games of BU’s season.
Four or five months ago, Lawrence would have been a popular pick among Rangers fans at pick 5. But now fans are being forced to ask: Is Lawrence the prospect who was on pace for 81 points in the USHL, or the prospect who demonstrated serious offensive limitations at BU? And more importantly, is he a player the Rangers can even consider at pick 5?
Tynan Lawrence Draft Rankings
Below is how Tynan Lawrence ranks in a few of the most respected draft rankings. You can find each ranking linked, although you may need a subscription to access the full ranking:
Playstyle
All positive outcomes for Lawrence will hinge on his standout trait: his skating. From my viewings, Lawrence is the premier skater among the top forwards in this draft. Even at the NCAA level, he regularly executed end-to-end rushes successfully. His stride flows really well and looks very technically sound, and with the strength training the NCAA offers, there is a chance he will become even more explosive. We aren’t talking a Jack Hughes-level skater, but Lawrence’s skating provides a safe floor at the NHL level.
Lawrence also brings an above-average skill level to his game, which is another major plus in his projection. He does his best to use his skill to break into the middle of the ice and is far from a perimeter player. He has a quick release that can beat goalies from distance, and I expect that to be an area of statistical growth in his game next season. Lawrence is also one of the strongest defensive centers in this class, and brings an exceptional compete level to his play. The common refrain you will see is that he does not “cheat” for offense, which is something coaches will love as he progresses up the ladder.
The major issue in his projection is the questions scouts have about his hockey sense and creativity. A player with his toolkit should be able to execute high-level offensive plays. The borderline unanimous consensus is that Tynan Lawrence simply doesn’t see the ice at a high enough level. If that is happening at lower levels, it raises major questions about his offensive ceiling at the pro level. He had a chance to quiet some of those questions at the U18 World Championships, and honestly, I don’t think his playmaking stood out in the way it needed to for him to retain his status as a clear top 10 pick.
All in all, Tynan Lawrence projects as a reliable two-way center who can be comfortably projected in the middle-six of an NHL line-up. He has all of the tools to hit the upper end of that projection, but becoming a shutdown 3C is not out of the question.
Production & Data
I have already touched on the production piece with Tynan Lawrence, as that is *the* major component of why his case at 5 is so interesting. For additional context, according to Hockey Stats’ model, he had the third-highest NHLe in his Draft-1 season, sitting only behind McKenna and Dylan Roobroeck’s brother, Ryan. He then fell to the 37th spot in NHLe during his draft season, which is incredibly concerning.
His microstat tracking confirms many of the overarching thoughts on his game. He is a great defensive player and gets involved in play, but his offensive chance creation leaves you wanting for a player as talented as he is. That being said, anyone claiming he was flat-out abysmal at BU is not offering a fair assessment of his play.
So is he worth a shot at 5?
At this point, it seems fairly clear that Tynan Lawrence is viewed as the 3C in this class behind Malhotra andBjorck. But if you still view him the way consensus rankings do (pick 9), is he still worth reaching for due to his position? I think he is so toolsy, and there is enough of a production track record in challenging leagues that I can get on board with it. But the risk is enormous, and I think Viggo Bjorck has a much clearer path to becoming a top 6 center than Tynan Lawrence. For that reason, I would prioritize selecting him over Lawrence.