Previously one of the most durable pitchers of the 2020s, José Berríos was absent last year when the Toronto Blue Jays missed out on a World Series championship by a single base. Berríos was first demoted to the bullpen in late September after a string of uninspiring starts, and then was left off the playoff roster due to elbow inflammation. Three mediocre spring starts and an ugly rehab stint in the minors later, Berríos underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery this week, cutting short his 2026 season before it ever really began, and almost certainly costing him a decent chunk of 2027 as well. If the Jays aren’t furrowing their brows at their fourth and fifth starters yet, it may be time to start.
The Jays had been at least cautiously optimistic about Berríos entering the season. He said he felt back to 100% this spring, and new inflammation was only discovered when he underwent an MRI for insurance purposes as he attempted to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Neither Berríos nor manager John Schneider seemed the least bit worried, at least publicly:
“It’s weird. The MRI is seeing something, and what I feel is way different,” Berríos said. “The MRI says I have inflammation, so we need to take care of that.
“He feels great, and I can’t overstate that. He feels great,” Schneider said. “He’s going to continue to play catch until we get a bit more info, but he’s not going to start today. It’s a unique situation right now with an MRI and the WBC insurance.”
But since pitchers are cursed by the Fates to near-Odysseus levels, things naturally unraveled from there. Berríos consulted with Dr. Keith Meister in mid-March, and was diagnosed with a stress fracture that caused him to miss the start of the season. After four rehab starts in the minors, Berríos reported additional elbow soreness, which led to surgery to address the fracture and remove loose bodies. Apparently, those bodies were pretty darn loose, and Berríos had the full reconstructive Tommy John surgery, definitely erasing him from the team’s short-term plans.
Toronto’s rotation has actually been quite good overall in 2026 so far, thanks to the trio of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Trey Yesavage all likely pitching as well as they ever will. In terms of their best three starters, the Jays have been absolutely elite so far:
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2026 Stats for Top Three Starting Pitchers
| Team | IP | ERA | xERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 180.0 | 2.70 | 2.73 | 2.47 | 5.9 |
| Phillies | 151.7 | 2.97 | 3.06 | 2.36 | 5.0 |
| Blue Jays | 140.0 | 2.83 | 2.91 | 2.55 | 4.7 |
| Pirates | 175.7 | 3.13 | 3.08 | 3.12 | 4.4 |
| Brewers | 120.7 | 2.09 | 2.63 | 2.32 | 4.2 |
| Dodgers | 135.3 | 1.80 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.9 |
| Angels | 152.3 | 4.08 | 3.74 | 3.22 | 3.8 |
| Twins | 160.7 | 3.19 | 3.49 | 3.44 | 3.7 |
| Tigers | 136.3 | 3.04 | 3.21 | 3.02 | 3.6 |
| Mariners | 180.3 | 3.34 | 3.48 | 3.47 | 3.4 |
| Rays | 146.3 | 2.46 | 3.58 | 3.25 | 3.4 |
| Royals | 172.3 | 3.45 | 4.36 | 3.50 | 3.4 |
| Guardians | 180.0 | 3.30 | 3.86 | 3.64 | 3.3 |
| Marlins | 178.3 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.3 |
| Braves | 156.3 | 2.19 | 3.26 | 3.27 | 3.2 |
| Mets | 165.0 | 3.11 | 3.49 | 3.48 | 3.2 |
| White Sox | 130.3 | 3.59 | 4.38 | 3.53 | 3.1 |
| Padres | 129.0 | 2.86 | 4.16 | 3.26 | 2.9 |
| Reds | 154.0 | 3.51 | 4.04 | 3.98 | 2.8 |
| Red Sox | 119.3 | 2.49 | 3.43 | 3.29 | 2.7 |
| Cubs | 95.7 | 3.86 | 3.41 | 2.91 | 2.6 |
| Giants | 122.0 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 3.12 | 2.5 |
| Rangers | 154.3 | 4.14 | 3.91 | 3.97 | 2.4 |
| Diamondbacks | 158.3 | 3.41 | 4.70 | 3.75 | 2.2 |
| Athletics | 161.0 | 3.69 | 3.82 | 4.19 | 2.1 |
| Astros | 82.0 | 2.30 | 3.87 | 3.21 | 1.9 |
| Cardinals | 159.3 | 3.78 | 4.64 | 4.11 | 1.8 |
| Nationals | 156.3 | 4.43 | 4.65 | 4.14 | 1.8 |
| Orioles | 147.7 | 5.12 | 4.34 | 4.27 | 1.6 |
| Rockies | 92.3 | 5.46 | 5.11 | 5.15 | 0.5 |
The Jays rank third in the majors in WAR from their best three starting pitchers, and that’s with Yesavage missing the first month of the season with a shoulder impingement. Outside of their top three starters, however, the Jays have been among the bottom of the league:
2026 Stats for Starting Pitchers Not in the Top Three
| Team | IP | ERA | xERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 148.3 | 4.43 | 4.22 | 4.44 | 1.6 |
| Rangers | 99.7 | 3.70 | 4.40 | 4.18 | 1.3 |
| Brewers | 109.0 | 4.21 | 3.95 | 4.39 | 1.2 |
| Rays | 94.0 | 3.83 | 4.35 | 4.31 | 1.1 |
| Mariners | 111.7 | 4.92 | 4.60 | 4.34 | 1.0 |
| Pirates | 84.0 | 4.71 | 4.87 | 4.24 | 1.0 |
| Tigers | 110.7 | 5.20 | 4.71 | 4.48 | 1.0 |
| Twins | 102.0 | 4.41 | 4.44 | 4.60 | 0.9 |
| Guardians | 108.3 | 4.07 | 4.33 | 4.57 | 0.8 |
| Mets | 77.7 | 6.61 | 4.71 | 4.36 | 0.7 |
| Yankees | 96.7 | 4.19 | 4.95 | 4.74 | 0.7 |
| Angels | 108.3 | 5.23 | 4.99 | 4.77 | 0.7 |
| Padres | 107.7 | 6.35 | 4.72 | 4.93 | 0.4 |
| Royals | 99.0 | 5.36 | 5.19 | 5.05 | 0.4 |
| Phillies | 113.0 | 6.53 | 5.33 | 5.04 | 0.3 |
| Braves | 122.3 | 4.27 | 4.10 | 4.97 | 0.2 |
| Cardinals | 101.7 | 4.43 | 5.87 | 4.84 | 0.1 |
| White Sox | 90.3 | 4.78 | 4.85 | 5.56 | 0.1 |
| Orioles | 100.7 | 5.10 | 4.94 | 5.37 | 0.0 |
| Cubs | 163.3 | 4.63 | 4.80 | 5.18 | 0.0 |
| Blue Jays | 93.3 | 5.59 | 5.68 | 5.57 | 0.0 |
| Rockies | 124.7 | 5.63 | 6.48 | 5.64 | -0.1 |
| Marlins | 62.7 | 6.32 | 5.59 | 5.64 | -0.2 |
| Astros | 158.3 | 6.42 | 5.04 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| Diamondbacks | 109.7 | 5.50 | 6.02 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| Giants | 154.3 | 5.19 | 5.01 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| Red Sox | 127.0 | 5.81 | 5.69 | 5.56 | -0.4 |
| Athletics | 102.0 | 5.12 | 4.89 | 6.32 | -0.6 |
| Reds | 94.7 | 6.27 | 6.42 | 6.53 | -0.8 |
| Nationals | 68.3 | 6.59 | 6.78 | 6.76 | -1.0 |
The good news is that the performance of a team’s top three starters becomes extremely important when we’re talking postseason baseball, given that that trio tends to get a much larger proportion of the team’s innings than it does during the regular season. The projections reflect this, and despite a rest-of-season projected roster winning percentage of only .521, ZiPS has the Jays at a .543 roster strength for a possible playoff run.
Of course, to get to October, the Jays first have to survive May through September, and that’s a bit trickier. The AL East crown looks like a tough get, with Toronto 11 games back as of Friday morning. The team has a lot of pitchers theoretically available, but they’re now mostly injured, which is why Berríos coming back healthy was so important. A healthy Berríos is probably best classified as a no. 3 starter at this point, but eating innings has a lot of value on a team like this, and only three pitchers, Aaron Nola and teammates Gausman and Patrick Corbin, have thrown more innings over the last decade. Among the alternatives, Bowden Francis and Cody Ponce are both out for the 2026 season, and while Max Scherzer is nearing a return, he looks like he’s running on fumes at this point in his Hall of Fame career. Shane Bieber is nearing a return as well, but betting on him staying healthy is a pretty gutsy dice roll. Spencer Miles is fascinating, but he has all of three professional starts and an even scarier injury history than Bieber. When Corbin is likely in your rotation for the foreseeable future, you know there are depth issues to be concerned about.
That’s why when the Marlins inevitably start shopping Sandy Alcantara around again, the Blue Jays ought to be all-in on him. This is a roster designed to win now, and if you’re going to move on from Bo Bichette and go with an Andrés Giménez/Ernie Clement middle infield, you might as well take advantage of it with a sinkerballer who doesn’t whiff that many guys. ZiPS projects the Jays to get a bigger boost from acquiring Alcantara than any of the other 28 possible suitors. And Gausman is a free agent after the season, so acquiring a pitcher who can be written into the 2027 rotation wouldn’t be a bad idea even under happier circumstances.
The Blue Jays didn’t need Berríos to be what he was with the Twins — a boring, sturdy, and available version would do — but they did need him, and that is why losing him hurts. They’re a dangerous team if they make it to October, but to get there, some additional tinkering with the rotation looks increasingly necessary.