Ben Shelton and Flavio Cobolli will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers when they battle for the BMW Open title on Sunday afternoon.
Shelton leads the head-to-head series 3-2, winning all three of their 2025 encounters after falling to Cobolli twice in 2024. The American prevailed 7-6(4), 7-6(4) in Acapulco, survived a contentious 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(1) thriller on his way to the Toronto title, and most recently scored a 7-6(4), 6-3 victory at the Paris Masters. All five of their meetings have either gone to a final set or featured at least one tiebreaker.
Another fun one should be in the cards with both guys playing great tennis. Although Cobolli has been far from consistent this season, his good weeks have been very good. The world No. 16 captured the title in Acapulco and is back in another ATP 500 final thanks to Munich wins over Diego Dedura, Zizou Bergs, Vit Kopriva, and Alexander Zverev. Cobolli was incredibly impressive throughout his 6-3, 6-3 semifinal upset of Zverev.
Success at the 500-point level is also nothing new for Shelton. Two of his four ATP titles and both of his runner-up finishes have come in 500s, including 12 months ago at this same Munich event (lost to Zverev). The world No. 6 is a solid 16-5 for his 2026 campaign and has advanced this week by taking out Emilio Nava, Alexander Blockx, Joao Fonseca, and Alex Molcan. Only his semifinal match against Molcan was routine.
Shelton may be the favorite on paper, but Cobolli has been the best player in Munich all week long. The world No. 16 has not dropped a single set and has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker. On a surface that slightly favors Cobolli, look for him to improve to 2-0 against Shelton on clay and cap off his amazing week in style.
Pick: Cobolli in 3