I’m worried.
When you compare us to the Flyers, our first-round playoff foe, we stack up as the superior team in most statistical categories (as well as on paper). We have a far better regulation record (35-24-23 vs. 27-27-28). A far superior goal differential (+25 vs. +7).
Five-on-five, we’ve outscored our opponents 201-173, for a goals for percentage of 53.74, as opposed to the Flyers’ 51.94 percent (161-149).
A better power-play? Yes. A 24.14 percent conversion rate vs. the Flyers’ anemic 15.74 percent. Penalty-killing? Despite our recent slide, you betcha (81.43 percent vs 77.55 percent).
Star power?
Same deal. The Pens can trot out still-potent former Hart, Ross and Smythe Trophy winners Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, along with three-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. To say nothing of All-Star caliber players Kris Letang, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust. Thirty-three goal-man Anthony Mantha and sniper Egor Chinakhov, too.
In particular, our ability to roll four solid lines is a huge plus.
The Flyers boast a good young core of Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny, Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett and 19-year-old Porter Martone. But nothing approaching the firepower we can throw their way.
Drysdale and Travis Sanheim aside, I’m not especially awed by the Flyers’ defense and think it can be exploited.
So why am I worried? Call it a hunch. Something in the air…indefinable yet tangible all the same.
As well as our Pens played to nail down a playoff spot, the Flyers were that much better. After enduring a ghastly 3-10-3 stretch that included a 3-1 loss to the Caps in their first game following the Olympic break, Philly went a piping-hot 18-6-1 the rest of the way.
Over that same 25-game-stretch, the Pens were a pedestrian-by-comparison 11-10-1. Yes, we won the big games when we needed to. But Philly would seem to have the edge in forward momentum heading into the playoffs.
Too, it’s the way the Flyers play under former Pens assistant Rick Tocchet. They employ a patient, buttoned-down style and do a great job of insulating their goalies (more on that topic in a bit). Not unlike the Barry Trotz Islanders of a few years back, who would rope-a-dope us into mistakes and then pounce. (I still have nightmares of Jordan Eberle breaking in alone on our goalies.)
Suffice to say, the Flyers are used to playing tight, low-scoring playoff style hockey.
The Pens? Not so much.
Given the high-powered nature of our offense, especially of late, the pessimist in me can see us getting frustrated if the puck doesn’t go in. Which could lead to us pressing. Which could lead to…(see above).
Goaltending also concerns me. After performing well through the middle portion of the season, Stuart Skinner and Arturs Šilovs have fallen on hard times. Since the Olympic break, Big Stu has an .884 save percentage. Šilovs checks in at .871. Neither has looked particularly sharp of late.
By contrast, key free-agent pickup Dan Vladar has been mostly terrific for the Flyers. The rangy 6’5” Czechian posted a .906 save percentage, 2.42 goals against average and sterling .725 quality starts percentage.
Since the Olympic break, a .909 save percentage.
In his career versus the Pens spanning six games, including two this season, Vladar’s posted an .899 save percentage and 3.10 goals against average to go with a 2-3-1 record, according to Dobber’s Frozen Tools.
On the flip side, our likely starter, Skinner has an impressive career record of 5-1-2 against the Flyers, with a 2.45 goals against average and .913 save percentage. Šilovs has been even better against the orange-and-black, a 1.92 goals-against average and .944 save percentage against Philly. So there’s hope they can keep the Flyers at bay.
Whether they can steal a game? A whole other matter.
Back to that “something in the air.” In the spring of 2012, the Pens were an absolute juggernaut. In my humble opinion, arguably the best team of the Crosby-Malkin era. At the zenith of his abilities, Geno scored 50 goals. He was an absolute beast that season, the most dominant player I’d seen since Mario Lemieux. Sidekick James Neal notched 40, while Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz and Jordan Staal each had 25 goals or better. Sid had finally returned hale and hearty from his concussion/neck odyssey.
We were deep, feisty and tough. Able to beat you on the ice and in the alley.
In its playoff preview, Sports Illustrated blared, “Who Can Stop the Penguins?”
The Flyers did. In the first round. In six games. Made it look easy, to boot.
I’m getting the same kind of vibes.
Don’t get me wrong. I truly love our team. Its heart ‘n’ soul makeup and never-say-die attitude. We possess an enormous reservoir of grit and character, perhaps more than any black-and-gold squad I’ve watched in the 50+ years I’ve been following the team. I doubt if Philly, young and spirited as they are, can match that.
Too, we’re in excellent hands with Dan Muse and his staff. He’s pushed all the right buttons so far, extraordinary for a rookie coach.
I just hope it’s enough.