Jonas Vingegaard is the leading pick and today it feels like misfortune may be a greater threat to his chances of winning overall than any rival rider.
Plenty can come unstuck in the next three weeks and if it’s easy to imagine the winner, it’s harder to cite the names alongside him on podium in Rome so here’s a look at Vingegaard’s mission and the other contenders.
Only Tadej Pogačar, team mates and misfortune have stopped Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LAB) winning stage races in recent years. In the Slovenian’s absence he should be clear of the field and he’s been lucky before starting the race as João Almeida who pushed him close at the Vuelta last year, and Richard Carapaz who can gamble with attacks while other defend, have opted not to race.
As we saw in Paris-Nice his style is not to snipe time bonuses but to attack mid-climb and open up a gap so he can turn a handful of opportunities into minutes of advantage. Technically solid for positioning and descending, he comes with a strong team in service undistracted by sprint stages. He’s planning to ride the Tour de France too so will he try to win with economy to be fresher for July? Only his team still don’t have a title sponsor for next year and needs to be seen to win big to entice any sponsors so one hypothesis is they’ll aim for every opportunity that Vingegaard or Sep Kuss can conclude; even lending out the maglia rosa mid-race could be a concession and if this idea stands they could steamroller the breakaways on mountain days.
The Giro is a must-win, he’s here to avoid basing his season around a confrontation with Pogačar and anything less than the maglia rosa in Rome could be awkward for him and the sponsor quest. He hasn’t raced since mid-March so it’s a big assumption is he’s ready to go, but he won the Vuelta last year well short of his best.
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe bring previous winner Jai Hindley as co-leader and he’ll soon be back to the Blockhaus where he built his victory in 2022. His win is fascinating today because to ponder “how did that happen?” is to open the door to tantalising surprises for 2026 too, not just for Hindley but for a host of rival contenders who we struggle to see winning today but in three week’s time it might all be perfectly obvious.
Giulio Pellizzari was sixth last year and is fast-improving and blooming into an all-round GC rider who can hold his own in time trials when a year ago he was losing time. He’d love to win but can equally ignore the Dane to settle for second place as this would be a huge result and would delight Italian audiences both for the result and the hope it invites, La Gazzetta dello Sport already brands him la nostra grande speraza, “our great hope”. They also have a Aleksandr Vlasov as a third prong, he’s struggled with injuries last year but this season he looks ready to bounce back. This gives them options but it’ll be hard to isolate Vingegaard.
With João Almeida out of form, UAE bring Adam Yates as their leader when he’s normally been a support rider, a role he excels in. He’s just won the Gran Camiño race but the hard part is to see him getting ahead of Vingegaard. The team come with options in Jay Vine and Jan Christen but can these two sustain GC challenges? Vine is saying no to this already but he can match the best climbers and and rival the best time triallists too, but his best result in a grand tour is 30th overall, in part because he’s taken on support roles but it’s not a stretch to imagine him going up the road on a mountain stage and being hard to pull back while Yates sits tight. Aged 21, Christen rides his first grand tour and is a lively prospect with a reputation as a man in a hurry; he’s been injured this spring but has been posting some impressive rides to Strava of late.
Felix Gall (Decathlon-CMA CGM) is big talent with some of the best lab numbers going but his challenge is exploiting this out on the road and not losing out because of mistakes with positioning or descending. Fifth in the 2025 Tour de France showed us what he can do but there’s a fragile aspect for a grand tour challenge, plus he’ll dread the 40km time trial stage.
Ben O’Connor was fourth here in 2024 and like old team mate Gall a brittle rider but also searching to recover the form of his last year at Decathlon-Ag2r. One of his strengths is stamina and endurance, he’s thrived on marathon stages and long climbs but this is a Giro with short stages but if things turn cold and wet he can thrive when others shiver. He’ll still cope and he can often beat expectations for time trials too.
Ineos bring past winner Egan Bernal but post-accident still on a long path back to victory, even his Vuelta stage win last year was when the finish was changed mid-stage because of protest, not his fault but he’s not beating the best yet, still he’s looking better, the challenge is to convert this into a podium finish or a stage win along the way. Thymen Arensman has twice been sixth overall in the Giro but a third time would be a disappointment unless he can take a stage or two along the way, he’ll appreciate the long time trial and the relatively softer third week.
Bahrain bring veteran Damiano Caruso for a valedictory Giro, a resilient rider who seems to hide in plain sight until the third week when he’s suddenly a GC contender but aged 38 he’s slower and more a road captain for Santiago Buitrago who is aiming for a top-5. Afonso Eulalio is a promising climber to watch too.
Derek Gee-West (Lidl-Trek) was fourth last year when La Gazzetta Dello Sport was branding him il sottomarino, “the submarine”, as he was hard to spot but always among the fleet of contenders. This year he’s been harder to spot among the results in recent weeks but he’ll like the long time trial. Giulio Ciccone (pictured) has given up on going for the overall as when he tried he’s never cracked the top-10 overall, but what if this just eases the pressure and he ends up well-placed? He could also go for the mountains competition as he packs a good sprint on climbs.
Enric Mas (Movistar) starts his 15th grand tour but first Giro. He’s often seemed to use the Tour as prep for the Vuelta so feels like an unknown quantity for May, a blank canvas. Is he better in the second grand tour or is that home advantage? Will he like this Giro’s Vuelta-like short distances route? Probably yes to this question and he’s backed by a solid team including Javier Romo.
Tudor tandem Michael Storer and Mathys Rondel are interesting for their different styles. Storer seems temperamental and volatile for form because at his best he can push Vingegaard in the mountains but twice tenth in the Giro shows delivering across three weeks is hard, while Rondel starts his first grand tour and is a shy rider trying to find his way.
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché) seems to have lost his way of late. Said to be on the market, the Giro is a good shop window for his talents but if he can be back at his best he’s a punchy rider more likely to thrill for stage wins than ride to a steady top-10.
Finally a mention for Alessandro Pinarello (NSN) who was Pellizzari’s colleague at Bardiani and improving too, he’s in form and in a field of just 41 Italian starters – the lowest ever – another one for the tifosi to cheer.