Over the next few months, NFL pundits and fans will reveal win-loss predictions for the Minnesota Vikings and the other 31 teams; it’s the nature of the beast before and after training camp. One site rolled out an underwhelming version for Minnesota last week — the club finishing under 8.5 wins, its current forecast from oddsmakers.
Fantasy Life‘s Ian Hartitz made the proclamation while sizing up the franchise’s fantasy outlook. It’s another prediction of many that are all over the board for Minnesota.
Vikings Win Total Debate Now Runs through Kyler Murray
Hartitz: Vikings = Under 8.5 Wins
Analyzing each NFL squad before Week 1, Hartitz landed on Minnesota. He wrote, “Win total prediction: While this Vikings team sputtered in 2025, there’s still plenty of talent on both sides of the football. It’d be a lot cooler for Skol faithful if the NFC North weren’t so loaded, but hey, we only have to go back one season to find the last time Minnesota handled that challenge with flying colors.”
“And yet, I’m taking UNDER 8.5 wins due to the potential for this defense to take a slight step back after losing some front-seven talent, and for the offense to (unfortunately) remain stuck in neutral. Bold fantasy call: Justin Jefferson will get back on track — and so will Jordan Addison. Give me a top-24 finish for the talented fourth-year receiver.”
Hartitz also expects a commendable year from Kyler Murray, mainly because of Kevin O’Connell’s work with Sam Darnold two years ago.
Why Hartitz Will Be Wrong
Hartitz’s unflattering outlook on Minnesota could prove false for a handful of reasons. Minnesota’s case begins with the defense. The Vikings underwent a transformation with Brian Flores’s arrival in 2023. O’Connell’s inaugural season was plagued by Ed Donatell’s ineffective defense, a unit that often allowed opponents to dictate the game rather than Minnesota asserting control. Flores immediately shifted the team’s calling card, and ever since, the defense has been the team’s most undeniable strength.
This development holds big implications for Murray. In Arizona, Murray spent the majority of his career burdened by defenses that ranged from mediocre to poor — a challenging scenario for any quarterback. Now, envision him with a top-tier defense, O’Connell’s play-calling, an elite receiving corps featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, and a capable offensive line. Suddenly, an 8.5-win projection appears quite attainable.
The Vikings achieved nine wins last year with a comparable roster, and that’s before accounting for a quarterback upgrade. While Jonathan Greenard’s departure to Philadelphia is a loss, Murray represents a legitimate upgrade in efficiency. His career EPA+CPOE metrics surpass those of Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, and C.J. Stroud.
If the prospect of Mayfield or Lawrence in Minnesota seems desirable, well, the Vikings are getting that in Murray. That’s just all there is to it.
Why Hartitz Might Be Right
If Hartitz nails the under 8.5 games, it will mean a few things. Foremost, finishing 8-9 or worse will mean that Murray does not take off in the Vikings’ offense, perhaps succumbing to injuries or flatly underperforming. As always, it starts at quarterback.
Next, the injury bug bit the Vikings last year, so much so that it felt like the ideal offensive line combination hardly played together. Often in the NFL, the team that touts the best health — fewest missed games by starters and meaningful depth players — gets deepest in the postseason.
Or — the weird one: Minnesota’s defense could take a step back after Top 3 finishes per EPA/Play and DVOA in 2024 and 2025. The personnel doesn’t hint at a regression, but strange things frequently happen in the NFL.
Poor quarterback performance — again — a rash of injuries, or uncharacteristically stinky defense could drop Minnesota’s win total.
Then What?
A losing season without a postseason berth may spell trouble for the Vikings — O’Connell in particular. It’s already a little peculiar that O’Connell will enter Year No. 5 of his coaching tenure with full-throated support from the team’s ownership while not having a playoff win under his belt. There is very tiny precedent for head coaches to see Year No. 5 with the same team sans a postseason dub.
The Vikings would probably be back to the drawing board at quarterback with a losing record, as well. Fans would be pondering O’Connell’s hot seat meter in January, in addition to preparing for a hefty quarterback draft in April.
The easiest way for O’Connell to escape this is to win a playoff game.
ESPN’s Football Power Index claims the Vikings have a 29% chance of reaching the playoffs. The regular season is 96 days away.
