After a week-long holiday away from researching & writing about the Winnipeg Jets, I am back to continue on with Arctic Ice Hockey’s look at how the True North franchise’s prospects are doing in their development. Through Part 1 & Part 2 we ended up looking at 7 of the most highly thought of prospects in Kieron Walton, Elias Salomonsson, Kevin He, Brad Lambert, Brayden Yager, Sascha Boumedienne, & Colby Barlow. After penning those articles, I walked away thinking that the scouts seemingly agree that our hockey team likely have found 5 middle six NHL forwards and 2 bottom four NHL defensemen from those draft selections.
So how many of the remaining 17 prospects will get the opportunity to don a Jets’ jersey in the future like those players probably will??? Well, since I’ve covered the most highly thought of prospects in Winnipeg’s pool….the success rate is certainly going to drop dramatically from now on. Yet that doesn’t mean that there aren’t any future NHLers left to look at and here are 4 young men that I think have the best shot to reach that dream.
In 2024, the Jets ended up sending their 1st round selection to the Montreal Canadiens when they acquired Sean Monahan in the hope of ending their long quest for a 2nd line center. Unfortunately that didn’t pan out when Monahan opted to sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets the following summer, leaving our team with that same 2C hole. To make things worse, the Habs ended up using our pick to select Michael Hage, who is showing positive signs that he will become a long-term top six center in the NHL. That, of course, is always the down side of taking a big swing at the trade deadline.
Therefore Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to wait until the 2nd round of that Entry Draft to add to his club’s prospect pool and he opted to go with defenseman Alfons Freij (37th overall). The then 17 yr old Swede was coming off a fantastic season in his country’s Junior league, piling up 33 pts in 40 gms (0.825 pts/gm) for the Vaxjo Lakers while also chipping in 45 pts in 40 international games (1.125 pts/gm). The defender got the opportunity to play for Bjorkloven in Sweden’s 2nd highest professional league the following season, chipping in 8 pts in 29 gms as a rookie while continuing to play well in International competitions (8 pts in 7 gms). Freij continued up the ladder of his hockey development this year, making the jump to the top league when he joined Timra IK of the SHL. While his offensive stats were still suppressed when playing against the older & tougher competition (11 pts in 42 gms), Alfons continued to shine when playing against his peer group in international competitions (17 pts in 21 gms). The young LD, who has regularly played on the right side, also got the opportunity to make his North American debut after his European campaign concluded. Unfortunately his time with the Manitoba Moose didn’t go that smoothly as he quickly caught a bug that cost him some AHL time, then got banged up in his 5th contest (1 pt).
The early 2nd round draft pick appears to be heading towards an NHL career, as supported by Dobber Prospect’s PNHLe chart projecting Freij in the high end 3rd pairing to low end 2nd pairing range and their 8.0 rating on the NHL Certainty stat.
That doesn’t mean that Alfons doesn’t have work to do to become an NHLer though. The 20 yr old has a lot of the tools that are needed to excel, being an average to above average sized defenseman who already possesses a pro-ready shot (especially 1 timer) to go along with good skating & mobility. The obstacles to reaching his potential include what some scouts called a “lack of hockey sense“, though I would probably put it more like “poor decision making at times“. The Swede does need to work on his game at both ends of the ice, though his offensive skills/senses are more advanced at this point of his development. The good thing I take from those comments, is that it seems to be fixable though coaching & film work, so he could meet Dobbers’ ceiling for his NHL impact…”Has the potential to make an impact in all three zones and the upside to become a number three puck-moving defenseman.“
The scouts have been happy with Freij’s development so far, which is reflected in his rising PNHLe rating, and Ryan Downey of Elite Prospects had good things to say about the kid’s season. Since I couldn’t break down Alfon’s game as succinctly as he did, I will share what he wrote:
“Freij is rounding into form at exactly the right time. Six goals and 11 points in 42 SHL games is a strong return for a young defenseman in a league that is rapidly becoming the best development circuit outside of North America, and he has only grown stronger as the season has progressed. He turned heads at the World Juniors with seven assists in seven games and his aggressive skating, puck-wanting instincts, and disciplined defensive play were certainly on display playing against his peers. His game is built on elite playmaking, defensive spacing, and stick work rather than raw point totals, and those qualities are translating at a level that should have Winnipeg excited about when he makes the move to North America.“
I can’t speak for the Jets…but I am quite excited to get the chance to watch Alfons Freij continue his development on “this side of the pond” next season and from the current state of the Winnipeg Jets’ depth chart, he should easily get the opportunity to play a top 4 role for the Manitoba Moose. Think his offensive upside and the likely departure of Ville Heinola will also open up some powerplay time for the Swede and he has all the tools to be a great quarterback & 1 time threat in those situations.
Since my actual viewing of Freij’s game has been limited to date, the following potential predictions are heavily relying on what the scouts are saying about him online. But my FloHockey subscription will allow me to make up for that next year with the Moose….so maybe my level of excitement about Alfons will even be higher after getting to see him in action regularly?
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Four Defenseman
Most Likely: NHL Bottom Four Defenseman
Basement: NHL Depth Defenseman
*****
The 2021 NHL Entry Draft saw the Winnipeg Jets in a fairly common area for their selections, often referred to as the murky middle (15th to 20th). In a 2nd round that has produced some already promising looking NHLers (the Stars took Logan Stankoven shortly before & guys like Matthew Knies & JJ Moser were picked later in the round), our squad ended up selecting Nikita Chibrikov with the 50th selection. The Russian’s pre-draft campaign saw the speedy forward play in all three of his country’s best leagues, as he picked up 19 pts in 46 gms….but it was his play at the World Junior’s that really attracted the scouts notice. As a 17 yr old playing against mainly slightly older competition, the winger exploded for 13 pts in 7 games as he played a big part in Russia’s offensive output.
That was enough for the Jets to take a shot on the talented, yet under-sized forward and Chibrikov continued his development in his home country for the next couple of campaigns. He continued to see action in all 3 leagues and while his stats were good in the lower leagues, he never really could produce at the top KHL level (4 pts in 45 gms). That led to the prospect opting to continue his development in North America, as he joined the Manitoba Moose for the 2023-24 season. The move seemed to pay off early, when Nikita amassed 47 pts in 70 games as an AHL rookie (.671 pts/gm). Unfortunately, that was the last time the mini-Jets had a decent squad and as a result the Russian’s production has taken a dip (34 pts in 83 gms over past 2 yrs) like all the other prospects playing in Manitoba.
Winnipeg has given the talented skater a few chances in the past 2 seasons at the NHL level (3 pts in 15 gms), but it can’t be said that he has been given the best opportunity by the Jets so far. In fact, a surprisingly large part of Dobbers’ commentary on Chibrikov was taken up with criticism’s of both the Moose & Jets’ player development decisions. After that great AHL debut, the site had his PNHLe rating flirt with the 1st line rate, but as you can see below that projection has continually dropped since then. Yet, the scouts over there still have his NHL Certainty rating at 8.0….but they are fairly certain that will only happen outside of Winnipeg’s organization.
Obviously becoming an under-sized forward in the NHL is a difficult thing to do. You typically need loads of talent offensively to go along with a never-die attitude that could bring up images of players like Theoren Fleury, Brad Marchand, or even Zach Benson in this year’s playoffs. There is no doubt that Chibrikov has some of those scoring gifts & gritty playing style to give him a shot, but the criticism’s of the Jets’ giving their kids good chances is an accurate one. I’ll admit that even when I am pondering what Winnipeg’s line up next year might look like….I rarely include Chibby in there, not because I think he lacks the skills but rather that I doubt the opportunity is ever offered because the “win now” concept has led the organization to lean heavily towards veteran players. Do I think this year’s lessons of being too old & slow were fully grasped by the Jets’ management & coaching staff? Hmmmm….let me wait to see what Chevy does at the draft & in free agency before tackling that.
Elite Prospects accurately captures the upside of Chibrikov below:
“If you give him space, a runway through the neutral zone, or a pocket in the offensive end, he will cut around the opposition with a combination of rapid handling and crossovers moves. He locates teammates early in possession sequences and finds ways to reach them by going to his backhand, by saucing the puck above sticks, banking it on the boards, or the goalie’s pads.“
As someone who was under-sized when I was playing hockey, I like the way Nikita Chibrikov isn’t afraid to get involved in scrums and agitate the opposition. The 23 yr old has way more “hands” than I ever had, but his speedy & agile skating was much closer to my skill-base. So I am definitely cheering for him to become an NHLer…yet like many others I doubt that it will be with my Jets. If a team had a lot of big power forwards able to create space and win board battles, Chibby would be a great forechecker with scoring talents that could help both at 5 on 5 and on a 2nd powerplay unit. Since that doesn’t sound like Winnipeg at all, the following potentials may have to be met elsewhere.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Middle Six Winger
Most Likely: NHL Bottom Six Winger
Basement: NHL Depth Winger
*****
The winger had an interesting season as a 17 yr old, starting off in Sweden’s under 18 league for only 1 contest (4 pts) before he was promoted to the U20 league (12 pts in 12 gms). Isak Rosen finally ended up in the country’s top league, suiting up for 1 pt in 22 gms for Leksands IF in the SHL. Mixed in there was an appearance at the World Juniors, where he netted 7 goals (9 pts) in 7 matches. The Buffalo Sabres had a pair of 1st rounders in 2021 and after using the 1st overall selection on defenseman Owen Powers, they opted for the talented forward with their 14th overall pick.
After spending another season bouncing around Sweden’s hockey leagues, Rosen made the move to North America for the 2022-23 campaign, joining the Sabres’ affiliate, the Rochester Americans. Over the next 3 seasons, the talented winger transformed from a promising rookie to an AHL star:
22-23: 37 pts in 66 gms (0.561)
23-24: 50 pts in 67 gms (0.746)
24-25: 55 pts in 61 gms (0.902)
The newest Jets’ forward is having another excellent season in the minors this year, pocketing 43 pts in 37 gms (1.162) before being traded from the Sabres. Isak started out as a 19 yr old and ended up pocketing 14 goals and .561 pts/gm as a rookie, then increased his output to .746 pts/gm, before coming even closer to a point per game last season (.901). Not only has his points increased each year, but his goal scoring has followed the same trajectory: 14, 20, 28. The promising output in the AHL led to Buffalo giving him a shot at the NHL level in 25-26, allowing Rosen to suit up for 16 contests (7 pts) before he finished the campaign with Winnipeg (3 pts in 22 gms, all goals).
The people at Dobber Prospects are showing a bit of a mixed message when it comes to their stats for Rosen, with their PNHLe indicating top six potential and their NHL Certainty rating of 7.5 not exactly a great number for a prospect already 23 yrs old.
According to Dobber Prospects, Rosen can actually drive offense, something that is clearly lacking at both the NHL & AHL levels:
A speedy, shifty scorer who can drive play in open ice and execute flashy individual moves to create offense. Possesses a quick shot. Needs to improve his defensive game and can be too passive while away from the puck.
Obviously the fact that Isak couldn’t crack the Sabres’ NHL roster, despite the team only becoming a playoff contender this year, indicates that the 22 yr old is still a work in progress that still could end up in the hit or miss category. However, Rosen’s path was blocked by a lot of young talent in Buffalo, something that won’t be the case in his new organization. In fact, the Sabres have had a top 10 overall draft picks in 11 of the last 13 drafts and the only two they earned themselves outside of that range fell in at 13th & 14th. And that is not to mention the number of times the club had multiple 1st rounders to work with…so they have had plenty of time to stock their prospect pool.
“In Winnipeg, Rosen has a genuine chance to crack a bottom-nine that the Jets have historically under-invested in relative to their top line. His quick playstyle and NHL-caliber release should set him apart from a depth group that has struggled to generate offense. RFA this summer, his next contract will tell you everything about how Winnipeg values him.” Ryan Downey of Elite Prospects
I really wish that Isak Rosen would have had the chance to join Manitoba for the AHL Playoffs this year, as it would have allowed me to see what the Swede could do when placed in the top 6 against near-NHL level competition. Whether that was because Winnipeg wanted to save an extra call up slot for someone like Brayden Yager or because they wanted to send him a message that they view him as an NHLer is unknown. There were flashes of play in his time with the Jets that showed that offensive spark he could provide…yet he was hardly surrounded by equally offensively adept linemates so I really don’t have a great idea of what he can bring. I fear that our club’s focus on the defensive side of our prospects will hinder the Swede from making the most impact he could at the NHL level. My potential range below cover all the big league forward positions, though he probably needs to find a top 9 spot or else he could top out at the AHL or European star player level. I haven’t seen enough of his game to be sure that this comparison is truly apt….but I am getting Jack Roslovic vibes so far.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Top Six Winger
Most Likely: NHL Middle Six Winger
Basement: NHL Depth Winger
*****
A local Manitoba boy from Oakbank, the center played his pre-draft campaign with the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL. Owen Martin performed well from the bottom six and provided frequent secondary scoring (34 pts in 39 gms) during the regular season, before chipping in 12 pts in 20 WHL playoff matches. That ended up being enough for the Winnipeg Jets to select him in the late 3rd round (92nd overall).
The forward continued his development in the WHL this year and got to play a bigger role for the Chiefs, allowing him to amass 56 pts in 65 contests. While the point totals did increase as expected with more opportunity, unfortunately the frequency the Canadian got his name on the scoresheet didn’t. On a positive note, Martin did show that he could thrive during playoff style hockey as he racked up 5 goals in the 6 games Spokane had this year.
Because Owen didn’t increase his production as much as hoped, his PNHLe took at dip from the 1st line to 2nd line potential range….which is still promising for a 3rd round selection. His NHL Certainty rating of 6.5 is another good omen, which is the last Jets’ prospect to reach the 6.0 level at this point in their development.
Elite Prospects likes the Manitoban’s motor, which has him working to always be above the puck (i.e. between the puck & his goalie) or eliminating off-puck threats by denying space to his man.
Mark Henry at Dobber Prospects agrees with that, writing:
“Martin is a skilled two-way center who plays well in all three zones. He can contribute to both special teams units and is strong in the faceoff circles. Martin needs to develop his defensive game a bit, become more physical, and not be afraid to take more risks offensively to help round out his overall game. He has the makings of a reliable third-line center, similar to Adam Lowry at the NHL level.”
Early on in his journey to the big league, Owen Martin has some promise to be a “hometown hero” with the Winnipeg Jets in the future. While he will never be one of the game changers offensively, the True North faithful have shown they are fond for falling in love with those grinding, blue collar players like current captain Lowry or speed Brandon Tanev. That is likely what the 19 yr old could become, though the potential ranges below are still holding out some hope that he can unlock a bit more offense in his final Junior campaign.
POTENTIAL:
Ceiling: NHL Middle Six Winger
Most Likely: NHL Bottom Six Winger
Basement: NHL Depth Winger
*****
As usual, that took me longer than I expected…..and I only had half to complete since I had gotten a bunch done before my little hiatus. When am I ever going to learn? Guess I am like those companies you call and get the automated message every time “We are experiencing higher than expected calls, please hold.” Well, if it happens all the time….then maybe we should expect it?
Anyways, I was a bit surprised that none of the remaining 13 Winnipeg Jets’ prospects have a 6.0 NHL Certainty rating….because I think at least a handful have a chance to break into the pros. That will have to wait until Part 4, when I much more briefly go through the players who have less of a chance at living their lifelong dream of becoming an NHLer.
Since the weekend is upon us, I will be dealing with my grumbling stomach by making some supper before I get around to researching the final prospects later tonight. Hopefully I will get that all over with and be able to start writing & formatting the article on Saturday with a goal of having it up sometime on Sunday (most likely that evening). Will try to squeeze in some enjoyment of the really hot weather in Manitoba we are having (highs between 32-35 Celsius/89-92 Fahrenheit).