The WTA Madrid semifinals unfold on Thursday. The last four in Spain are a surprise to everyone except Mirra Andreeva. The three semifinalists other than Andreeva began WTA Madrid outside the top 20 of the rankings. Because none of these players are in the top five, winning a championship here would mean a huge rankings boost. When a player such as Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff wins a 1,000-point event, it’s a case of an elite player maintaining her top-level position. When a lower-ranked player wins a 1,000-point tournament, it shakes up the rankings. Let’s see who will advance to Saturday’s final.
WTA Madrid
Baptiste – Andreeva: Time 10:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
Hailey Baptiste played the match of her career in the quarterfinals. She fought off six match points and beat World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka to reach the semifinals. Baptiste has achieved a new career ranking. She will at least be in the top 25 next week when the new rankings are established. She could move into the top 20 if she can get past the semifinal stage and into the final. Mirra Andreeva is playing very confident and consistent tennis. She won Linz, made the semifinals in Stuttgart, and is now in the semifinals of Madrid. She is very comfortable on clay and is having the success she expects from herself. This was not the case a month ago in Indian Wells and Miami. Andreeva has turned her season around.
Best Bet to Make
This match should be close. Baptiste is feeling extremely confident. Any player who saves six match points against Aryna Sabalenka and eventually manages to beat the World No. 1 is obviously in a good space. Some will say that Baptiste will be emotionally worn out after the win over Sabalenka. That’s possible, but Baptiste got a day off between that match and this one. If she didn’t have a day off, that would be one thing, but getting rest should give Baptiste enough to keep this match very tight.
That being said, betting on Baptiste +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Baptiste +1.5 sets @1.80 @10Bet
Kostyuk – Potapova: Time 15:30 EST
H2H: 2-2
Marta Kostyuk is on a roll. The Ukrainian has won her last 10 matches. She won the Rouen title and has won her last six matches in straight sets. Overall, Kostyuk has won the last 13 sets she has played. She won a very tight first set – in a tiebreaker – over Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals. She then dominated the second set 6-0. Anastasia Potapova, a lucky loser, has made the most of her good fortune in Madrid. She beat World No. 2 Elena Rybakina and followed that with a win over Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinals.
Best Bet to Make
It’s time to trust Kostyuk. We bet against her (against the spread, not moneyline) in the quarterfinals against Noskova and lost. Given that she has won 13 straight sets, Kostyuk has earned respect. Potapova is playing really well, but going from Pliskova in the quarterfinals to Kostyuk in the semifinals is a step up. Kostyuk will be ready, and she should be trusted to get the job done.
That being said, betting on Kostyuk winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kostyuk winning 2:0 @1.97 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports