The WTA Nottingham Round of 16 play continues on Thursday. It has been a very interesting tournament thus far, mostly because seeded players aren’t doing very well. Four of the eight quarterfinalists have been determined for this event, and only one of the four is a seeded player, Emma Navarro. We have seen Tatjana Maria, Talia Gibson, and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro reach the quarterfinals of this 250-point WTA tournament. On Thursday, the other four quarterfinalists will be identified. At least two more unseeded players will make the quarterfinals, with only two seeds, Marie Bouzkova and Ann Li, being part of the Thursday schedule. Beyond this lies Wimbledon, and all of its trappings. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Nottingham
Golubic – Sonmez: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Viktorija Golubic faces Zeynep Sonmez in Nottingham. Golubic had a very unusual start to her campaign this week in Nottingham. She defeated Sofia Kenin in qualifying, earning a spot in the main draw. However, as you probably know, there have been a lot of withdrawals from this tournament as players take precautions with their health before Wimbledon. Kenin got into the main draw as a lucky loser. She was placed against Golubic in the draw. Golubic had to beat Kenin twice in a row to advance to the Round of 16. Sonmez had a very strong first round in Nottingham, beating Leylah Fernandez in straight sets. That’s a top-25 win for the Turkish pro, who is up to a career-high No. 54 in the WTA rankings and should get into the top 50 with a win here.
Best Bet to Make
The fact that Sonmez just defeated Leylah Fernandez in straight sets is notable. Sonmez is the more in-form player of the two. She is trying to get into the top 50, so she will be very motivated for this match. It’s not that Golubic won’t be, but Sonmez will have a little extra incentive to do well in this specific situation. Golubic just played the same opponent twice in a row, so that means the way she played was relatively the same. She had to have the same plan and tactics in consecutive matches. That might leave her slightly less prepared for a different opponent, especially one who is riding a wave of confidence. Everything points to a Sonmez win in Nottingham. If you wanted to go with Sonmez in straight sets, you would get a tremendous price, but Sonmez moneyline has a reasonable price and is a much safer wager.
That being said, betting on Sonmez winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sonmez winning @1.73 @Unibet
Pliskova – McNally: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1–0
Karolina Pliskova faces Caty McNally. Pliskova was outside the top 1000 not that long ago, due to a combination of injuries and maternity leave. She has had a great spring and has worked her way back into the top 100, and she is moving toward the top 80. Caty McNally is coming off a solid straight-set win over Antonia Ruzic. Both players are 3-1 in limited grass match play this month. This match is a good measuring stick for both players heading into Wimbledon. It could be the kind of match we will see in the first round of that tournament in a couple of weeks.
Best Bet to Make
The reality that both players are playing well and have similar results on grass makes this a hard match to call at Nottingham. The fact that McNally is the higher-ranked player doesn’t seem to mean much when considering the point that Pliskova is a former Wimbledon finalist and knows how to play on grass. The betting markets have McNally priced as a very slight favorite, with average moneyline odds of 1.83 compared to 1.95 for Pliskova. With all of these pieces of information in front of you, the smart bet that offers a strong return for your investment is over 2.5 sets. It’s the go-to bet when you can’t really separate two players from each other. That’s the situation we have here.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.41 @Betsson
Li – Preston: Time 9:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Ann Li faces Taylah Preston. We told you to take Ann Li over Kimberly Birrell earlier this week in Nottingham, and if you followed our advice, you were rewarded for it. Li cashed a ticket as a 2.19 moneyline underdog, showing that her top-30 WTA ranking still means something and that Birrell was being given a little too much respect. Taylah Preston just defeated Anna Blinkova in Nottingham to advance to the Round of 16. She is ranked nearly 100 spots below Li and is the betting-market underdog heading into this match. Can Li go from being a match underdog to a match favorite and continue to play at the same high level?
Best Bet to Make
Our trust in Li was rewarded, so we are not going to go away from Li now. Not only will she win (which has a 1.52 price, not quite enough for us to make that our official bet), she will win in straight sets. You can fold Li moneyline into a parlay, but then make Li winning 2:0 your standalone wager. You’ll get the same 2.19 price you got for Li beating Birrell earlier this week. Li has earned a certain degree of trust. Preston, a player ranked nearly 100 spots below Li, hasn’t earned the same level of confidence.
That being said, betting on Li winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Li winning 2:0 @2.19 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai -USA TODAY Sports