Dynasty Football Buy Low Sell High
Rookie draft picks are all shiny gold bars in the eyes of Dynasty managers; nothing can go wrong, and every rookie will be a stud, right? Cooling heads prevail, and the Dynasty manager who doesn’t get caught up in the hype and buys low on the right targets is usually the one who is laughing at the end of the season, playing for the league championship.
The following are 7 Dynasty Football buy-low targets to consider in 2026.
Tyler Shough
Dynasty Buy Low 📈
If you’re in a superflex dynasty league and you’re not aggressively targeting Tyler Shough right now, you’re leaving serious equity on the table.
Yes, the Saints finished 6-11 in 2025. Yes, Shough started the season as a backup behind Spencer Rattler. But once he took over in Week 9, the narrative shifted fast, and it hasn’t shifted back. Shough went 5-4 as a starter, led all rookie QBs in completion percentage (67.6%), passer rating (91.3%), and wins, and closed the year with a 333-yard, 2-TD gem against Tennessee. The coaching staff didn’t just tolerate his performance; they committed to him publicly as the QB1 heading into 2026.
Honestly, at one point I thought he might win Offensive rookie of the year lol.
Here’s where the dynasty value gets really interesting: Shough carries a sub-$4M cap hit for the next three seasons. That means the Saints front office has every financial incentive to build around him rather than replace him. And they just did exactly that by drafting Jordyn Tyson at No. 8 overall, which gives Shough an instant WR2 weapon, opposite Chris Olave, who returns healthy under his fifth-year option. Don’t forget: Travis Etienne takes pressure off the passing game, keeping the offense balanced.
The legitimate concern is his downfield passing; just 26.3% completion rate on 20-plus yard throws as a rookie ranks near the bottom of the league. That’s a real flaw, not a talking point you dismiss, but he’ll get a full season of reps to work on that as the Saints QB1.
Kellen More Factor: Don’t underestimate how much the coaching scheme amplifies Shough’s dynasty ceiling. Moore’s offense is built around “families” of grouped play concepts that allow players to process information faster and play with less hesitation. Moore has also been direct that his entire offensive evolution in 2026 will be built around Shough: “Any offense is going to be steered by the quarterback position.” A head coach designing his system for his QB, not asking his QB to fit a system, is exactly the dynasty situation you want to bet on long-term.
Jalen Hurts
Dynasty Buy Low 📈
ESPN’s offseason clickbait target is in for a big season, whether you like him or not.
The narrative on Jalen Hurts right now is loud, ugly, and almost entirely driven by a 2025 season of regression that came with real problems. A career-low 7.1 yards per attempt, a career-low in rushing, a stagnant offense ranked 24th in yards per game, and a Wild Card exit against a banged-up 49ers team. There’s a reason his dynasty value has taken a hit. But here’s the thing: this is exactly the moment to buy.
Hurts is a two-time Super Bowl participant, a Super Bowl MVP, and a dual-threat weapon who has historically elevated when the pressure is highest. The noise around him right now, the ESPN hit pieces, the AJB drama, the OC carousel, is priced into his current dynasty cost.
You’re not buying peak Hurts. You’re buying bounce-back Hurts at a discount, which is historically when you want to strike.
The 2026 offseason has brought genuine structural changes. New OC Sean Mannion is implementing a motion-heavy, play-action scheme built around getting Hurts into quick rhythm throws, a direct response to what made the offense predictable in 2025. The Eagles drafted Makai Lemon (WR, No. 20 overall) and Eli Stowers (TE, No. 54 overall), both elite athletes who specialize in attacking the middle of the field.
People forget how good things were back in the day. In 2022, with Shane Steichen, Hurts was a league winner. 2024 wasn’t much worse. Where Hurts has struggled is from the Eagles promoting rookie offensive coordinators from within the organization, an arrogant move that the head coach hasn’t been blamed for enough.
Hurts had success with Kellen Moore and Shane Steichen, both of whom leveraged their big seasons into head-coaching jobs. Brian Johnson and Kevin Patullo were first-year, in-over-their-head mistakes
Sean Mannion is the X-factor. He wasn’t promoted from within, but comes with more experience than Patullo and Brian Johnson. Mannion served as the Packers’ quarterbacks coach last season after being an offensive assistant in Green Bay in 2024. Under Mannion, Jordan Love threw for 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six interceptions in 15 games. Packers backup Malik Willis completed over 85% of his passes for 422 yards and three interceptions in limited action with Love sidelined.
Hot Take: The Eagles Trading AJ Brown is a Good Thing
A.J. Brown’s separation rate in 2025 dropped to a career-low of 1.8 yards per target. This marks a decrease from his 2.1 yards per route run in 2024 and 2.4-2.6 yards per route run in previous seasons, consistently ranking him among the lowest among qualifying NFL wide receivers this season.
If the price is there, and you need a quarterback, I think Hurts is at a bargain price.
Former #Eagles OL coach Jeff Stoutland on what went wrong in 2025:
“It’s execution. It’s calling the right play at the right time and not running bad plays into bad defenses. It ain’t that hard.”
(🎥 @newheightshow) pic.twitter.com/5j7tMnT6sJ
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 27, 2026
David Montgomery
Dynasty Buy Low 📈
A 28-year-old running back, what am I crazy? Well, if you’re in a rebuild mode, then you can skip this one, but if your team is in a position to do some damage this season, Mont might be the cherry on top.
The dynasty community saw 716 rushing yards, career-low touches, and backup to Jahmyr Gibbs, and has decided that David Montgomery is a fade. That’s exactly the kind of surface-level reading that creates buy-low windows, and this one is wide open.
Everything has changed.
He didn’t just change teams; he went from the logjam in Detroit, where he was handcuffed to Gibbs’ snap share, to becoming the unquestioned RB1 in Houston, where Joe Mixon was released, and Nick Chubb walked out the door in free agency. The current Texans depth chart reads: Montgomery, Woody Marks, Jawhar Jordan. That’s a lead dog role with soft competition behind him. The Texans’ off-season focus is rebuilding the OL and putting less pressure on their quarterback.
The underlying efficiency numbers in 2025 never actually broke down. Montgomery averaged 4.5 yards per rush (21st among qualifying backs) and 3.17 yards after contact (17th), solid mid-tier production on limited touches. His volume was suppressed by scheme, not by decline. And in Houston, the scheme fits. Montgomery led all backs in EPA per rush on man/gap concepts at .034, which aligns directly with how the Texans want to run the football.
Yes, the honest concern is age. Montgomery turns 29 in June 2026, a real dynasty flag at running back, where the cliff can arrive fast. His MCL injury last December adds durability noise on top of it. In pure dynasty leagues, you’re not buying him as a long-term cornerstone.
You’re buying him as a 1-2 year rental RB1 at a discount. But at the price? He’s a steal. A solid RB2 for this season.
Kyle Monangai
Dynasty Buy Low 📈
Kyle Monangai is being overlooked. D’Andre Swift had a career year, the Bears offense hummed, yet Monangai, a 23-year-old seventh-round pick, quietly put together one of the most efficient rookie RB seasons in recent memory.
Here is the dynasty math. Swift is in the final year of his contract in 2026. Monangai is the only Bears back signed through 2027. The team drafted him in 2025, watched him produce immediately, and has no obvious heir apparent waiting behind him. Analysts have already described Monangai as the perfect complement to Swift, the thunder to his lightning. When Swift inevitably walks in free agency after 2026, Monangai does not step into a committee. He steps into an offense that ranked first in pass block win rate, ran behind elite line play, and produced career highs at the running back position. That is a situation you want to own at age 23.
The efficiency numbers as a rookie were not a fluke either. The most touches by a seventh-round rookie back since 2019, a 4.63 yards-per-carry average, and a dominant 198-yard performance in the one week Swift sat out. The coaches trusted him immediately, and the volume followed.
Monangai is still splitting a backfield with a motivated Swift playing on a contract year. But he’s a perfect investment player to buy low on now. His floor is a handcuff with upside, not an immediate RB1. In redraft leagues, that is a pass. In dynasty, that is the buy window, right now, before Swift’s departure makes this obvious to everyone in your league.
Josh Downs
Dynasty Buy Low 📈
Josh Downs’ 2025 stat line saw 58 catches and 566 yards. The production drop had almost nothing to do with Downs. The Colts went from running two-tight-end personnel on 24.8% of snaps in 2023 and 2024 to 35.6% in 2025, a direct result of Tyler Warren’s dominant rookie season pushing Downs off the field entirely in heavy packages. His route efficiency stayed intact. Downs was targeted on 23.9% of his routes across his rookie contract, the same rate as Michael Pittman, meaning every time he ran a route, the quarterback looked his way at the same frequency as the team’s supposed WR1.
The touches just dried up. The talent did not.
Now the 2026 picture has shifted meaningfully in his favor. Pittman, who drew 111 or more targets in each of his last five seasons in Indianapolis, is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. Those targets have to go somewhere, and Downs is the most logical heir.
The Colts front office is not being subtle about it either. GM Chris Ballard said publicly, “I think Josh Downs is freaking good. I think allowing him some more opportunities, we’re going to see some of the special stuff you’ve seen in the past, but more.” When a GM says that at the NFL Annual Meeting, he is telling you something.
The downside is that the Colts’ quarterback room is a mess. Daniel Jones is recovering from a torn Achilles, and his return by Week 1 is described as technically doable but borderline wishful thinking.
At 24 years old, entering the final year of his rookie deal with a GM loudly endorsing him and 100-plus targets now available in the target tree, the risk is priced in, and the upside is not.
J.K Dobbins
Dynasty Sell High 📉
I understand where the hype is coming from with J.K Dobbins… I’m just not buying it. This team and its current roster scream RB committee to me.
The case for Dobbins looks real. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry in 2025 and was on pace for 1,312 rushing yards before the foot injury ended his season. The Broncos liked what they saw enough to bring him back on a new deal. The offense around him is legitimate. The argument writes itself.
Here is what the buyers are glossing over. This is not a one-time bad luck injury. Dobbins has now had significant, season-altering injuries in essentially every campaign since he was drafted in 2020. A torn ACL in 2021. Multiple IR trips with Baltimore. Injuries with the Chargers. And now a Lisfranc injury in Denver requiring surgery. The Broncos themselves acknowledged this openly, drafting Jonah Coleman specifically as depth and insurance, with team analysts noting that Dobbins’ injuries continue to sideline him and hurt the team late in the year.
Lisfranc injuries deserve special attention in dynasty circles. They are not hamstring tweaks. They are structural foot injuries that historically affect a running back’s burst and cut-back ability, the exact traits that make Dobbins’ 5.0 YPC compelling in the first place. He turns 28 in June 2026 on a body that has absorbed an unusual amount of trauma for a player his age.
The Broncos’ drafting Jonah Coleman threw cold water on the Dobbins hype, but if I were you, I’d sell him ASAP.
Justin Jefferson
Dynasty Sell High 📉
Let’s be direct before anything else. Justin Jefferson is not declining. He is not a broken player. He is not a sell because of talent. He is a sell because right now his dynasty value is riding a wave of Kyler Murray optimism with a very clear expiration date, and the advanced manager sells into waves before they break.
Last season, Jefferson posted career lows in yards and touchdowns while Vikings quarterbacks combined for bottom-four passing numbers league-wide. His dynasty’s price dropped. Then the Vikings signed Murray, and suddenly Jefferson’s managers are dreaming about a full-season WR1 explosion. That optimism has already re-inflated his value to near its pre-2025 peak.
That is your sell window. Right now. Before a snap is played.
The problem with the Murray thesis is structural, not personal. Murray signed a one-year deal with a no-tag clause, meaning that regardless of what happens in 2026, he hits free agency again after the season. If Murray plays well, he leaves for a bigger deal elsewhere. If Murray plays poorly, Minnesota is back to McCarthy or something worse. Either outcome leaves Jefferson facing a third consecutive winter of quarterback uncertainty heading into 2027.
The optimism being priced into his value today assumes a resolution that the contract structure explicitly does not provide.
If you can get a good offer, I would highly consider it.