It is a tale of two very different semifinal contests in Hamburg on Friday. One is an all-seeded showdown between Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul, while the other features qualifier Ignacio Buse and lucky loser Aleksandar Kovacevic.
(3) Alex de Minaur vs. (6) Tommy Paul
De Minaur and Paul will be squaring off for the seventh time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Hamburg Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-1 in De Minaur’s favor, but Paul finally got over the hump in this matchup when they most recently faced each other last spring in Rome — where the American cruised 7-5, 6-3.
Both players have found some momentum during this clay-court swing in advance of the French Open. De Minaur reached the Monte-Carlo quarters and has advanced this week with wins over Francisco Cerundolo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Luciano Darderi. Paul lifted the Houston trophy last month and so far in Hamburg has defeated Ethan Quinn, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and Daniel Altmaier — saving seven match points against Etcheverry in the process. This could obviously go either way, but a slight edge goes to the American as a superior clay-court player.
Pick: Paul in 3
(LL) Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. (Q) Ignacio Buse
Ask Buse and Kovacevic at the beginning of the week about their expectations for Hamburg, and they surely would have been happy just to be part of the main draw. Well, they have been a part of it alright — and now they are all the way in the semifinals. For Kovacevic, he needed some help to be involved in the 32-man field. The 94th-ranked American fell to Arthur Gea in qualies but got a lucky-loser spot in the bracket…and the rest is history. Kovacevic secured his spot in the last four by beating Gea in a rematch, No. 1 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
Buse earned his place in the main draw with victories over Niels McDonald and Hugo Gaston. The 57th-ranked Peruvian now finds himself in a second ATP 500 semifinal (previously in Rio de Janeiro three months ago) following defeats of Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, and Ugo Humbert. Buse is in better form than his opponent and is much more comfortable on clay, so this is likely the end of the road for Kovacevic.
Pick: Buse in 2