“Obviously, I would love to fight for the general classification, but right now, being on my own, it’s impossible,” Carapaz admitted. “When you go to the Tour, you need everyone at 100 per cent, and at the moment we don’t have that. We have to be realistic.”
Carapaz targets yellow before Tour rethink
Carapaz has not ruled out an immediate move for yellow. The Tour opens with a 19.7km team time trial in Barcelona, finishing on Montjuic, with individual times taken for the general classification inside the collective effort. That format gives the opening stage added significance for the overall contenders and could create gaps from day one.
Carapaz wore the maillot jaune briefly at the 2024 Tour before going on to win the mountains classification and the stage to SuperDevoluy. In Barcelona, he sees another possible early opportunity. “At first, I’ll try to do the same as I did two or three years ago. If I can get the yellow jersey, I’ll try, obviously,” he said. “After that, if not, there will come a day when we’ll have to ease off and look at what opportunities lie ahead.”
According to Carapaz, the start of the race is unlikely to be controlled or cautious. “It is going to create quite a few differences,” he said. “At the highest level now, everyone races for everything and most teams are going to go for it.”
That leaves Carapaz in a delicate position. He is not entering the Tour as a pure stage hunter, but he is also not pretending the race can be approached as a straightforward podium campaign if EF cannot give him full support across three weeks.
Carapaz has previously worn the Maillot Jaune at the Tour de France
“Today it’s impossible to make Pogacar suffer”
Pogacar remains the clearest measure of the task. Carapaz finished second behind him at the Tour de Suisse, but the race only strengthened his view that the Slovenian is operating beyond the reach of the rest on current evidence.
“Today it’s impossible to make Pogacar suffer. He’s far above everyone else,” Carapaz said. “What he has shown these past few days in Switzerland has been incredible. He’s the only rider who can challenge Mathieu van der Poel in a Classic or Paris-Roubaix and then go on to win Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Il Lombardia, Strade Bianche or the Tour.”
Carapaz did not declare the Tour finished before Barcelona. He expects Team Visma | Lease a Bike and Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe to bring riders capable of challenging the race, and he knows three weeks can be altered by crashes, illness or one badly timed weakness.
“We can’t say the Tour is already decided because it’s a bike race and anything can happen,” he said. “A crash or an illness can have an influence. Theoretically, he’s the biggest favourite, obviously, but Visma and Red Bull will also bring riders to try and fight.”
The problem for Carapaz is that an open race still has to be raced with the resources available. His own comments point towards a Tour built around selective aggression: yellow if the opening weekend allows it, the mountains jersey if the GC fight becomes unrealistic, and a stage victory if the right breakaway opens.
Alpe d’Huez offers Carapaz a clear target
The standout target is Alpe d’Huez. The 2026 Tour ends its Alpine phase with back-to-back summit finishes there, giving climbers and breakaway riders a rare late-race double opportunity on one of cycling’s most famous climbs.
“Alpe d’Huez is a stage I like and one that really excites me,” Carapaz said. “It’s very hard and everyone knows it. But on paper things can always change. You have to be intelligent, know which breakaway to join and take advantage of the opportunities that come.”
Carapaz’s place on the Tour start line looked less certain earlier this year. He missed the Giro d’Italia after surgery in spring, with his recovery taking longer than he had first expected. He returned at GP Gippingen before using the Tour de Suisse as his final major test before France.
“The operation was more difficult than I expected,” he said. “I thought it would just be a small incision, remove it and that would be it, but it had to be more invasive and the recovery took much longer. That uncertainty always eats away at you and I became a little desperate.”
Switzerland changed the mood. “The Tour de Suisse was something very special,” Carapaz said. “It was about reconnecting with myself and being able to fight for a podium again. It confirms that we’ve done good preparation. It was the best test we could have had before the Tour.”
A poor result there may even have changed his July completely. “If I had finished 20th or worse, half an hour or 40 minutes behind the best riders, maybe you start to rethink things,” he said. “The Tour is such a serious race that if you’re not properly prepared, it’s better not to go.”
Carapaz now has proof that he belongs in the race. Whether he belongs in the GC fight for three full weeks is the question his own Tour may answer quickly.