With the Vegas Golden Knights officially losing in game six of the Stanley Cup Final this past weekend, the Flames’ worst-case scenario has come true. The first-round pick received in the Noah Hanifin trade will be slotted in the lowest possible spot without awarding the Flames another first in 2028. Such is life in Calgary, and they’ll now hold the 30th overall pick in the first round.
So, how have the players selected 30th overall fared, and how successful has the draft slot been? The results may surprise you. Let’s take a look.
The last five 30th overall picks
2025 – Joshua Ravensbergen – San Jose Sharks
Last year, the Sharks selected the draft’s top goalie, Joshua Ravensbergen at 30th overall. So far, so good. Ravensbergen is coming off a dominant year in the WHL and remains one of the top goalie prospects in the world. The Sharks took advantage of other teams not needing help between the pipes and picked the top player at his position at 30th. Not too shabby.
2024 – E.J. Emery – N.Y. Rangers
In 2024, the Rangers selected hulking defenceman E.J. Emery at 30th. Emery is an athletic monster, setting two combine records during his draft year. He saw a decent uptick in offence this past season in the NCAA, too. So far, this looks like a solid bet given Emery’s raw tools, as there’s a good chance he becomes a shutdown NHL defender one day.
2023 – Bradly Nadeau – Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes just know how to draft. It’s why they’re the reigning champs. Bradly Nadeau looks like a steal at 30th right now, coming off two elite AHL seasons before he even turned 21. Nadeau was ranked higher than 30th going into the draft, but his size made a lot of teams overlook him. Ever heard that one before? As far as 30th overall picks go, this was a homerun.
2022 – Brad Lambert – Winnipeg Jets
Very much a boom or bust pick, the Jets took a gamble on Brad Lambert in 2022. Once considered a top-five pick due to his high-end skill, Lambert tumbled down draft boards due to some serious concerns about his game. So far, the concerns have been justified. Now 22 years old, Lambert produced just 13 points in the AHL last season. There’s still time, but this gamble hasn’t paid off so far.
2021 – Zachary Dean – Vegas Golden Knights
Selected 30th overall in 2021, Zachary Dean is already looking like a miss. Now 23 years old, he’s posted just 32 points in 96 AHL games over the past three years. At this point, it looks like he’s locked in as AHL depth with little hope of becoming an impact player in the NHL.
How often do 30th overall picks make the NHL?
For a deeper overall look at how often 30th-overall draft picks become NHL players, let’s look at how many of these picks since the turn of the century have played NHL games, played in at least 200 NHL games, and registered at least 200 points in the NHL.
I’ll exclude the last three drafts, as it’s too early to include those picks. Overall, that leaves us with 23 total 30th-overall picks between the 2000 and 2022 drafts.
| Metric | 30th overall picks (between 2000-2022) |
|---|---|
| Played NHL Games | 21 of 23 |
| >200 NHL GP | 9 of 23 |
| >200 NHL Points* | 4 of 22* |
The numbers break down pretty much how you would expect for a late first-round draft pick. 21 of the 23 players selected played at least some NHL games. The last 30th overall pick to not manage a single NHL game was Nick Ross, picked in 2007. Needless to say, whoever gets picked at 30th almost always gets into the NHL at some point.
Now, longevity is another discussion. Only nine of the 23 players selected at 30th have played at least 200 games in the NHL. Joe Veleno, who was selected in 2018, is the last instance to hit the 200 games played mark. With that said, 2019 selection John Beecher is only 35 games away, while 2020 selection Mavrik Bourque is only 44 games away.
In terms of point production, the numbers drop even further. Only four of the 22 skaters selected at 30th overall have managed 200 points in the NHL. Those players are Brock Nelson, Rickard Rakell, Tanner Pearson, and Ryan Hartman, all picked between 2010 and 2013. Not one 30th overall pick since 2013 has managed 200 points in the NHL. Eeli Tolvanen and Sam Steel are likely locks to hit the 200-point mark this coming season though, bringing the total to six players.
Most notable 30th overall picks in NHL history
Throughout the history of the NHL draft, here are the most notable players selected 30th overall. I’ll consider players who have gone on to have All-Star-level and/or long careers in the NHL.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2013 | Ryan Hartman* |
| 2012 | Tanner Pearson* |
| 2011 | Rickard Rakell* |
| 2010 | Brock Nelson* |
| 1991 | Sandis Ozolinsh |
| 1989 | Patrice Brisebois |
| 1979 | Mark Hardy |
The 30th overall pick was an NHL factory to start the 2010’s. For four straight seasons between 2010 and 2013, the 30th overall pick turned into a solid NHL player. Nelson and Rakell in particular, have become top-of-the-lineup NHL players in their careers. Since then, however, things have been much different, and we’re still waiting for another impact player to emerge from the slot. We haven’t seen one in 13 years.
The rest of the 2000’s were dreadful for 30th overall, and you’d have to go all the way back to the late 80’s and early 90’s to find a notable player selected 30th overall. Still though, none of the above players were high-end talents in the NHL.
An unlucky bounce
Make no mistake, Vegas dropping their pick from 18th back in April to 30th overall is a big hit to the Flames’ draft odds. Late first-round picks are essentially lottery tickets, and at 30th overall, the Flames will be in tough to select more than a role player at the NHL level.